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Section 1: War by the Numbers

Introduction

The title "War by the Numbers" reflects the brutality of war, a reality where people become statistics, where the count of those involved matters more than the individual lives behind each figure.

This project takes a brutal, data-driven look at war through its numbers. It focuses on the Middle East, a region long scarred by recurring conflicts, through interactive visualizations, reveals the scale of events such as battles, explosions, protests, riots, deaths, and the countless lives drawn into violence every day.

Data at hand

ACLED: Clarity in Crisis; Armed Conflict Location & Event Data is an independent, impartial conflict monitor providing real-time data and analysis on violent conflict and protest in all countries and territories across the world.

UN WPP: World Population Prospects 2024; The United Nations World Population Prospects is the official source of global demographic data, providing comprehensive population estimates and projections for all countries and regions.

Section 2: A Region in Contrast

Visualizing difference in Middle Eastern conflicts from 2020 to present.

The following visualizations compare the countries of the region to highlight differences and contrasts, revealing that some areas have been far more affected than others, not only in terms of the number of events, but above all in human losses.

Palestine, Yemen, Syria: The Three Epicenters of Death in the Middle East

Devastating conflicts in three areas are responsible for the majority of fatalities.

The first visualization highlights a sharp divide across the region in terms of conflict-related deaths. Some countries report relatively low losses, indicating limited involvement in violent events. In contrast, other areas show a significantly higher death toll.

Palestine stands out in particular, where since October 2023 a genocide has been unfolding in the Gaza Strip, carried out by Israel, resulting in a catastrophic loss of civilian life. Syria and Yemen also register extremely high numbers, each involved in prolonged civil wars, the Syrian Civil War, ongoing since 2011, and the Yemeni Civil War, which began in 2014, both continuing to devastate their populations.

Syria, Palestine, Yemen: Leading the Region in Conflict Events

An event-type analysis reveals a strong concentration of incidents in these three countries.

This visualization shows the number and types of events occurring across the region. Events include both those that result in fatalities and non-lethal incidents, such as protests.

The data confirm the patterns observed in the previous chart: the three countries with the highest death tolls, Palestine, Yemen, and Syria, are also those registering the largest number of conflict events.

Middle East Conflict Heatmap: Persistent Wars and Spikes

Syria and Yemen show steady high levels, contrasted by a dramatic surge in Palestine and Lebanon.

Analyzing the distribution of events year by year, the data show that Syria and Yemen maintain consistently high levels throughout the period studied. In contrast, Palestine records a historic peak in 2024, the first full year of the ongoing genocide against the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.

Another notable surge, smaller in absolute numbers but still significant, occurs in Lebanon, where 14,000 events were recorded in 2024, far above the country's average of around 3,000. This spike is linked to Israel, which at the end of 2023 began a conflict against Hezbollah, coinciding with the ongoing violence in Gaza.

Middle East Conflicts by Type: Who Fights, Who Protests

Percentage breakdowns reveal how violent and non-violent events are distributed across countries.

The visualization shows the percentage of different event types recorded in each country. Once again, a clear division emerges. Some countries, such as Iran, Bahrain, and Jordan, see the majority of events falling under peaceful actions, protests, or strategic developments. In contrast, Syria, Palestine, Yemen, and Lebanon are dominated by events that result in human losses, such as explosions, remote violence, battles and violence against civilians.

Explosions and Remote Violence Dominate Conflict Events across the Middle East

A regional overview reveals that explosions, remote attacks, and protests account for the largest share of recorded incidents.

This visualization takes a regional view, showing the share of each type of event across the Middle East. Explosions and remote violence, along with protests, emerge as the most common events, highlighting the persistent divide between conflict and civilian action. The chart underscores a troubling reality: despite ongoing efforts and occasional peaceful demonstrations, the region remains trapped in cycles of violence and unrest.

Alternative Overview of Fatalities by Country

A different perspective on how fatalities are distributed across Middle Eastern countries.

This bonus chart drives home the human toll of conflict across the Middle East. The visualization starkly highlights the disproportionate losses in Palestine, Syria, and Yemen, standing out far above the rest of the region. By presenting the data in this way, it becomes impossible to ignore where the impact of war has been most severe.

Section 3: Showing trends through distributions

Visualizing distributions to highlight trends and patterns in the data

Total population is driven by the mortality in the different age groups

Population distribution and mortality patterns vary significantly across age groups, revealing how deaths impact different demographic segments. This interactive visualization allows comparison across countries and time periods, showing how the age structure and mortality burden have evolved. By analyzing these trends, we can better understand the demographic consequences of conflict and other factors affecting population health.

Starting from the 1950s, the population pyramids illustrate a broad base, indicative of high birth rates and a youthful population. As we progress through the decades, the pyramids begin to narrow at the base, reflecting declining birth rates and improved child survival. This can be easily seen by the child mortality rates having a huge spike around the 0-4 yeats range in the earlier decades, which then gradually decreases over time.

Conflicts in Middle Eastern Countries over the years

The distribution of conflict events throughout the year reveals distinct patterns of intensity and frequency across selectable Middle Eastern countries from 2020 to the present. Each ridge represents a different year, enabling direct comparison of how conflict activity fluctuates seasonally and evolves over time. Peaks in the ridgelines indicate periods of heightened unrest, while troughs suggest relative calm, providing insights into the temporal dynamics of regional instability.

Notably, starting from October 2023, there is a stark increase in Conflicts in Palestine, Israel, Jordan and Lebanon, following the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This surge is reflected in the ridgeline plot, where the peaks for these countries become significantly more pronounced compared to previous years, indicating a substantial rise in conflict events during this period.

Parallel Lives: Comparing the Human Cost Between Middle Eastern Nations

This visualization highlights how different Middle Eastern countries follow distinct patterns in population age distribution and conflict-related deaths across the years. While some nations show steady demographic shifts, others experience sharp distortions linked to conflict intensity and instability.

A persistent and troubling feature is the high rate of child fatalities, which continues to shape the overall distribution and underscores the deep human cost of ongoing unrest in the region.

Section 4: Trends over time

Visualizing trends over time to understand the evolution of conflicts and their impact

Evolution of the conflicts over time.

Thanks to this visualization, we can observe how conflict-related events have evolved over time. A particularly large concentration of events appears in Syria between 2017 and 2019, corresponding to the peak of the civil war. In the following years, Palestine overtakes all other countries, driven by the ongoing genocide. Most other countries, however, show a relatively steady number of events throughout the entire period (2015-present), a clear indication that conflict remains a constant presence across the region.

Section 5: Geographical distribution of conflicts

Visualizing the geographical distribution of conflicts to understand regional dynamics

Mapping Conflicts in the Middle East

This geographical map provides a spatial overview of conflict events across the Middle East. Each country is color-coded based on the number of recorded incidents, allowing for quick identification of hotspots and areas of relative calm. The visualization highlights the uneven distribution of violence in the region, with certain countries experiencing significantly higher levels of conflict than others.

The way violence shapes the middle east

This small multiple geographical map visualization breaks down conflict events by country across the Middle East. Each map represents a different nation, color-coded to reflect the number of incidents recorded within its borders. This approach allows for a detailed comparison of how violence is distributed across the region, highlighting both hotspots of conflict and areas with relatively lower levels of violence.

Hexbin Map of Conflict Events in the Middle East

This hexbin map provides a spatial representation of conflict events across the Middle East. Each hexagon aggregates events within its area, with color intensity indicating the frequency of incidents. This visualization helps identify hotspots of conflict and understand the geographical distribution of violence in the region.

Section 6: Network Visualization

Understanding flows and relationships between events and their consequences

Event Flows (Sankey)

This Sankey diagram visualizes the flow of events from different event types across the Middle East. The width of each flow represents the magnitude of events, helping to understand how different types of violence relate to each other in the overall conflict landscape.

Hierarchical View (Bubble Chart)

This bubble chart presents a hierarchical view of conflict events by country and event type. Each bubble represents an event type within a country, with size indicating event frequency. Click on a country to focus on that region's distribution.